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First Name
Last Name
University of Manchester, UK
Elections British elections Brexit British Election Study Partisanship Campaigns Voting behavior
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Personal Info

About Me

I am a Professor of Political Science in the Cathy Marsh Institute for Social Research and the Politics Discipline Area at the University of Manchester. I am Co-Director of the 2015 British Election Study as part of the Manchester-Oxford-Nottingham leadership team, funded by the ESRC (see I obtained my PhD from Nuffield College, Oxford, in 2007.

My research interests are in public opinion and electoral behaviour. In particular, my research focuses on long-term contextual explanations of political choice, and over-time variation in public opinion – and their implications for politics, broadly defined. My forthcoming book (with Will Jennings), published by Cambridge University Press, examines public opinion about party competence, revealing short-term performance impacts, cyclical dynamics accounting for costs of ruling, and the impact of shocks on parties’ reputations across policy issues. My work with the British Election Study includes analyses of long-term economic voting, how attitudes about election outcomes condition political choice, the impact of party campaigns on public opinion and vote choices, how respondent-defined google maps help explain attitudes to immigration, and how survey-linked social media data can be used to define representative samples of online communities.

I was a member of the independent polling Inquiry panel established by the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society to examine what went wrong in the polling for the 2015 general election.


Recent Publications
Media Coverage

I am an election analyst for ITV News and worked on the 2016 US Presidential election, the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership, and on the 2015 UK general election. I am a regular commentator on various national and international media and was awarded the Political Studies Association’s 2015 ‘Research Communicator’ award.

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