Emily VanMeter, Ph.D. Candidate

emily.vanmeter@rochester.edu

University of Rochester

Country: United States (New York)

Research Interests

Immigration & Citizenship

Comparative Political Institutions

Non-Democratic Regimes

Refugees

Development

Political Economy

Specific Areas of Interest

State Formation/consolidation

Immigration Policy

European History

State Development

Sub-state Nationalism

Federalism, Regionalism, Decentralization

Countries of Interest

France

United Kingdom

Publications:

Journal Articles:

(2018) Even Generals Need Friends: How Domestic and International Reactions to Coups Influence Regime Survival, Journal of Conflict Resolution

Tags: Non-Democratic Regimes, Comparative Democratization, Foreign Policy

Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coups. Coups remain difficult to predict and consequently leave policy makers in a reactive stance, but little systematic work assesses how these reactions influence long-term outcomes. We examine how reactions from domestic and international actors influence the duration of coup-born regimes, arguing that negative reactions will shorten leadership duration. We further probe these relationships by considering how signaling consistency, Cold War dynamics, and precoup relationships condition the influence of reactions on leadership duration. Tests use events data to capture domestic and international reactions and newly coded information on leadership to capture leader duration. Results indicate that international responses have a profound influence on leadership tenure, especially those from strong actors. We find tentative support that state reactions have the strongest effect during the Cold War, while international organizations matter the most afterward.