Public predictions about the results of forthcoming elections have important consequences for political campaigns and support for governmental institutions. This research examines whether partisan media facilitate wishful thinking, which occurs when candidate preference biases electoral predictions. We use two experiments to test whether partisan news exposure increases wishful thinking about election outcomes. Our results suggest that when partisan media cover the in-party as winning the horse race, likeminded viewers are more likely to predict the in-party will win. On the other hand, when partisan media cover the in-party as losing the horse race, likeminded viewers adjust their predictions downward. The effects of unfavorable horse race coverage on electoral expectations are magnified when viewers watch the partisan news outlet they prefer. Meanwhile, watching counter-attitudinal media only appears to affect electoral predictions when partisans do not also watch like-minded news. Overall, we show that where people get their news, and how partisan media cover the horse race, has important effects on electoral expectations.

Campaigns disproportionately choose men to voice their political ads, but it is not clear that men’s voices are more credible or better able to persuade an audience. We employ experimental data and novel survey data to test theoretical expectations about the circumstances under which men’s and women’s voices might be more or less effective, specifically looking at how gender association of the ad issues and gender of the message recipient shape the effectiveness of the ad. We find that men’s voices are not universally more effective than women’s voices and under some circumstances may even be less effective.

Emotional appeals are a central part of politics in America, and examples of their use in political campaigns are many. The classic “Daisy Girl” ad of 1964 used images of a nuclear explosion to try to raise voters’ anxiety so that they would show up to the polls and vote for Lyndon Johnson. The American flags that appear on stages at campaign rallies (and on lapel pins) are designed to associate specific candidates with the emotion of pride. At the same time, anger over “Washington insiders” and the “Washington establishment” pervades many political speeches. Here we review the literature on the effects of emotions on people’s participation in politics, their opinions on political matters and the choices they make at the ballot box. We also review the small but growing literature on the use of emotions in political campaigns, that is, how political actors try to deploy emotions strategically to achieve their desired electoral ends (e.g., Ridout and Searles 2011; Cho 2013; Brader 2006). Finally, we examine the use of emotional appeals in advertising by Clinton and Trump during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.

Emotional appeals are a central part of politics in America, and examples of their use in political campaigns are many.  The classic “Daisy Girl” ad of 1964 used images of a nuclear explosion to try to raise voters’ anxiety so that they would show up to the polls and vote for Lyndon Johnson.  The American flags that appear on stages at campaign rallies (and on lapel pins) are designed to associate specific candidates with the emotion of pride. At the same time, anger over “Washington insiders” and the “Washington establishment” pervades many political speeches.  Here we review the literature on the effects of emotions on people’s participation in politics, their opinions on political matters and the choices they make at the ballot box.  We also review the small but growing literature on the use of emotions in political campaigns, that is, how political actors try to deploy emotions strategically to achieve their desired electoral ends (e.g., Ridout and Searles 2011; Cho 2013; Brader 2006).  Finally, we examine the use of emotional appeals in advertising by Clinton and Trump during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.

Women know stuff. Yet, all too often, they are underrepresented in political science meetings, syllabi, and editorial boards. To counter the implicit bias that leads to women’s underrepresentation, to ensure that women’s expertise is included and shared, and to improve the visibility of women in political science, in February 2016 we launched the “Women Also Know Stuff” initiative, which features a crowd-sourced website and an active Twitter feed. In this article, we share the origins of our project, the effect we are already having on media utilization of women experts, and plans for how to expand that success within the discipline of political science. We also share our personal reflections on the project.

Televised election coverage is increasingly dominated by the horse race, a key element of which is poll coverage. How do news outlets decide which poll to air? We know little about the gatekeeping function of news outlets as it pertains to poll coverage, perhaps because this research is plagued by selection bias: By observing only reported polls and not unreported polls, researchers cannot definitively establish that any differences in representativeness are due to bias. Using a novel dataset that includes all prime-time presidential election poll coverage on Fox, MSNBC, CNN, and broadcast television networks during the 2008 election, we compare the universe of polls released each day to the polls actually covered by each news network. We find differences between the distribution of poll coverage and distribution of actual poll results. Our results suggest that both gatekeepers and reporters may have a hand in this distortion.

Recent work on media choice calls into question the continued influence of traditional news media on the public agenda. We asked whether agenda setting persists either in its traditional form or an alternative form. Coverage of the 2008 American economic collapse provides a unique case as it offers a rare moment of uniform media attention across outlets. We combined a content analysis of news coverage with survey data from the National Annenberg Election Study. Using multivariate time series analysis, we found that the news media respond to issue concerns of viewers and their effects vary by source

Recent research has uncovered a dynamic role for emotion in political decision-making. Anger in particular has increased in importance as scholars uncover its role in motivating participation and partisanship. One method for examining these effects is to use an induction to invoke an emotion, though such techniques are often limited to the laboratory. We discuss pertinent psychological research on induction, test several methods, and make practical recommendations for political science survey research. Using a unique research design which varies the way anger is invoked, we first find significant effects using a scenario induction. We replicate these findings with an adult sample and extend the results to political inductions. We are able to offer practical advice to scholars interested in replicating the effects of angry campaign ads or better understanding the effects of anger arousal on political behavior.

We draw on a comprehensive database of American political advertising and television audience profile data to investigate the ways in which gender influences choices about the use of voice-overs in political advertising. Our findings suggest that although men voice the vast majority of political ads, campaigns do strategically choose the sex of the voice-over announcer and that it systematically varies with candidate characteristics, ad tone, and, to a lesser extent, issues. Moreover, using survey data, we show that the choice of voice-over influences the perceived credibility of the ad.

Building on the geographic constituency theory of awareness of Supreme Court decisions, we conducted a panel survey in Cleveland, Ohio before and after Zelman v. Simmons-Harris, which upheld state-funded vouchers in religious schools. We found several characteristics predict awareness: news consumption, income, and knowledge of and positive feelings toward the Court. Our results also showed those vested in the outcome, such as African Americans, religious individuals, and parents were more likely to change their attitudes in favor of the decision and become more positive toward the institution. These findings help us understand the circumstances under which some individuals may become vested in court decisions.

Most research examining partisan media effects uses individual differences in exposure to news sources to predict attitude change. In this paper, we improve upon this approach by using variations in cable news coverage to predict subsequent changes in viewer impressions of the candidates. This approach allows us to examine the distinct effects of in-party and out-party candidate coverage. Content analyses and survey data show that partisan media effects result from coverage of the opposition candidate, and not from coverage of the like-minded candidate. Specifically, during the 2008 presidential election, increased coverage of Obama (McCain) on Fox News (MSNBC) made viewers less favorable toward Obama (McCain). Meanwhile, coverage of McCain (Obama) on Fox News (MSNBC) had minimal effects on viewer impressions. These results suggest that media effects persist even during an era dominated by selective exposure.

In this article, we examine both the content and effects of opinion shows during the 2008 presidential election. First, a content analysis shows that opinion shows devote most of their attention to attacking the opposition candidate, rather than praising the like-minded candidate. Second, analyses of panel data show that exposure to opinion shows made viewers less (more) favorable toward the opposition (like-minded) candidate. Finally, we use overtime analyses to show that coverage of the opposition candidate affects attitudes toward both candidates, whereas coverage of the like-minded candidate has negligible effects on attitudes toward either candidate.

Due to limitations in both time and resources, presidents who wish to assist their copartisans’ electoral endeavors must make strategic choices when offering their assistance. Much research has attempted to explain why presidents devote their limited resources during a midterm election, yet we know little about the factors that lead to a presidential visit to a particular congressional district. Our research addresses this gap in the literature by narrowing the focus to the congressional district level. We ask the following: Are the same factors that lead to a presidential visit at the state level operational at the district level? The results suggest they are not. Moreover, we find that while presidents do indeed behave rationally when they make appearances for their copartisans, visits are more likely to occur when there are multiple higher-level competitive races in a district, and presidents are more likely to go where they are already popular.

In the popular imagination, the Supreme Court of the United States is often pictured as a “marble temple.” The building’s neo-classical façade, sitting atop an imposing stairway of forty-four steps looking down on the Capitol building and Pennsylvania Avenue is intended to give the illusion of a solemn institution that sits above the fray of political life and the ordinary mortals who work within it. But the Court is not a building. Nor is it a collection of nine black-robed judges. Rather, the Supreme Court is a collection of rules, norms, and ideas. Some of these are very complicated, such as the idea of judicial review or judicial impartiality. Some are more straightforward, such as the norm requiring secrecy about the Court’s deliberations, the principle of “majority rule when deciding cases,” or the idea of respecting seniority during conference discussions. Very few of these normative structures are formalized in laws or statutes. Most are simply customary habits of thought or traditions which, by their very nature, are alterable without any formal process that would mark a clear break from past practices.

Do electronic newspaper databases contain all of the stories that appear in the print edition? And does this depend on the database used? To explore these questions, we collected print copies of newspapers from cities across the USA and Canada. We compared coverage of two topics in these newspapers with the coverage obtained from keyword searches in three electronic newspaper databases. We conclude that the stories obtained through electronic searches are consistent across databases but can vary from the print source. Importantly, national and international coverage is more likely to be missing than local or statewide/provincial coverage.

Recent research in the area of campaign advertising suggests that emotional appeals can influence political attitudes, electoral choices and decision-making processes. Yet is there any evidence that candidates use emotional appeals strategically during campaigns? Is there a pattern to their use? For instance, are fear appeals used primarily late in the campaign by trailing candidates in order to get voters to rethink their choices? And are enthusiasm appeals used more commonly early on in order to shore up a candidate's base? We use affective intelligence theory—and supplement it with the idea of a voter backlash—to generate expectations about when candidates use certain emotional appeals (namely, anger, fear, enthusiasm, and pride) and which types of candidates are most likely to do so. We then test these ideas using campaign advertising data from several U.S. Senate races from 2004. Our research thus provides a link between research on campaign decision making—here the decision to “go emotional”—and research focusing on the effects of emotional appeals on voters.

Research in political psychology suggests that politicians successfully manipulate emotions through campaign advertisements. While work in environmental psychology emphasizes emotional connection to the environment, scholars have yet to examine the potential of emotional appeals in non-campaign messages. I am interested in the use of emotional appeals in pro-environmental public service announcements. I set out to test the effect of emotional appeals in an environmental public service announcement script. Using a survey experiment I demonstrate that emotions significantly influence the environmental attitudes of participants. My findings offer support for the application of affective intelligence theory to environmental communication.