Paula Clerici, Ph.D.
pclerici@utdt.edu
Adjunct Professor
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires
Year of PhD: 2015
Phone: +5491153372841
City: Buenos Aires
Country: Argentina
I am a Researcher at the National Council for Scientific and Technical Research of Argentina (CONICET), and Associate Professor of government and politics at the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. I am the Director of the Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Computational Social Science (iLCSS – University of Maryland) in Argentina. I hold a PhD in Political Science (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella) and MA in Social Research (University of Warwick). I was a postdoctoral research visiting at the University of Maryland (2017) and Otto-Friedrich Universität Bamberg (2018). I am also Chevening and Fulbright fellow. My research interests center on the relationship between electoral competition and decision-making, focusing on the study of political institutions, legislative behavior, executive-legislative relations, cabinets, political coalitions, party system, and federalism. In my research, I use quantitative designs to answer my research questions.
Research Interests
Comparative Political Institutions
Representation and Electoral Systems
Legislative Politics
Political Parties and Interest Groups
American Presidency And Executive Politics
Elections, Election Administration, and Voting Behavior
Coalition Governments
Comparative Party Systems
Executive-Legislative Relations
Legislative Behavior
Elections
Subnational Politics
Federalism, Regionalism, Decentralization
Legislative Studies
Presidential Agenda Setting
Countries of Interest
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
United Kingdom
United States
Spain
The composition of cabinets under presidential regimes has constituted one of the top topics of the litterature in political science in recent years. However, nothing has been said about the proper size of those cabinets. That is, why some cabinets are 37 ministers large when other is formed by just 13 members? We carry on a theory of cabinet size under presidential regimes, using insights from both parliamentarist and presidentialist literature. Our model is composed of five hypotheses relying on an original dataset of 161 observations across 19 presidential countries of the Americas. Our main finding is that the inclusion of independents and/or technocrats impacts significantly on lowering caninets’ size.
In federal presidential democracies, discretionary transfers are often mentioned as a tool used by the national executive to build and strengthen subnational support, typically governors. Funds to local mayors, however, have been much less studied. With original data, in this study we analyze the distribution of a particular discretionary transfer (ATN) to the Argentine municipalities during two periods: 1997–2000 and 2016–2019. We show that the main driver for transfers is the mayor’s political alignment. Indeed, the president is more likely to reward loyal mayors, but especially when both the latter and the President oppose the provincial governor. By this token, we highlight a nested political game, in which the President considers the loyalty of both mayors and governors combined to decide when to reward (or when not to reward) municipalities. Furthermore, we find that the Executive provides aid to smaller municipalities to circumvent the possibility of funding mayors from larger cities who may pose a threat as political rivals in the future. Since this pattern is more evident in localities with aligned mayors, we can infer that the President’s strategy is aimed at preventing future challengers from within their own coalition.
When will legislators assigned to the same committee cooperate with each other? In federal presidential regimes, both the President and governors demand policy answers from members of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Legislators’ preferences sometimes coincide with those of the President and the governors of their home states; on other occasions, they only align with the preferences of the President or the state governor; and, finally, at times preferences align with neither. In this paper, I analyse the committee system of a multi-party and multi-level legislature and test the partisan and territorial determinants of committee collaboration. My theory elucidates the inner workings of committee systems with competing principals and multiple parties to explain why we observe more active collaboration among supporters of the President and less active collaboration among those only aligned with the governor or with the opposition. I exemplify with the Argentine House of Representatives (1993–2017).
Why do legislators switch their votes between the committee and floor stages in multiparty presidential systems? The literature on the US Congress has argued that switches are conditional on cross-cutting pressures by competing principals (i.e., party leaders and interest groups), partisanship, electoral competitiveness, ideology, seniority, and informational updates. This article argues that unlike in the US two-party system, in multiparty systems electoral competitiveness increases the likelihood of switching. Additionally, the practice of switching is more likely for legislators whose competing principals are leaders with conflicting electoral interests. We test these hypotheses analyzing vote switches between committee reports and roll-call votes in the Argentine Chamber of Deputies. Our results indicate that legislative vote switching indeed behaves differently in multiparty than in a two-party presidential system.
What factors impact on the productivity of legislators? In this paper, we argue that legislative productivity depends not only on party affiliation, seniority, gender, and other contextual considerations (e.g., alignment with the executive), as previous studies have shown, but also on the connections between legislators. Our main argument is that legislators’ effectiveness in getting their proposals approved by the chamber depends on their centrality in the cosponsorship network. Unlike previous studies of Latin American legislatures, which usually consider bills as the unit of analysis, we focus on legislators and their individual records. We consider individual productivity as the number of authored bills approved by the chamber in a two-year congress. To test our hypothesis, we use data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies from 1983 to 2019.
Does a competitive primary generate a damage to parties? Literature emphasizes that the electoral effect could be negative in the Latin American party system. Here we show that a competitive primary affect parties negatively because they lose considerable voters in between the two elections. When factional competition generates friction among candidates, leaders and militants, a negative impact occurs within the political space. This results in the possibility that the candidate who wins the primary receives “friendly fire”.
Opposition minorities are often overlooked in presidential regimes, as they seem to lack the political clout to affect legislative outcomes. In this article, I challenge this claim, proving that opposition minorities play a significant role in the amendment and approval of executive initiatives at the committee stage. Using an original dataset that records legislators’ positions on politically relevant committee reports in Argentina (1983–2017), I show that opposition legislators frequently contribute to the president’s success in committee. This collaboration increases in more denationalised political contexts and for legislators aligned with the party of the provincial executive.
The conventional understanding in the scholarly literature is that the main dimension that sets legislators’ ideal points is the tension between the government and the opposition parties. In this article, I challenge this claim, demonstrating that this alignment is contingent on the level of party system nationalization. These consequences have not been fully documented. Using DW-NOMINATE to calculate Argentine legislators’ ideal points (1983-2017), I show that individual territorialization in roll call voting increases when the party system is more decentralized. Legislators are closer to their provincial delegation, irrespective of which party they belong to, when there are low levels of party nationalization. At the individual level, this mechanism may be understood by the competing principals’ theory: because party system decentralization implies a response to local dynamics over national dynamics, cross-pressured legislators may favor their subnational principal.
In this article, we introduce readers to a new concept, Executive Decoupling, which describes a statistical decline in the capacity of the Executive to modify existing legislation by decree. In contrast with Bureaucratic Delegation models, which consider legislative encroachment by the Executive as a contextual event and the result of conflict among the different branches of the government, we show that increased statutory density restrains the ability of the Executive to legislate by decree. The motive is an increase in interdependence between legislative jurisdictions, some of which connect with issues that are restricted to the President. As the citation network of existing legislation expands, increased interdependence between jurisdictions prevents the executive from innovating in contiguous normative issue areas.
¿Tienen las alianzas electorales un efecto sobre el comportamiento de los legisladores en las comisiones permanentes del Congreso? En este artículo se muestra que no existe evidencia estadísticamente significativa acerca de que compromisos electorales que llevaron a la elección de un diputado se traduzcan en apoyos legislativos a la agenda de política pública propuesta por el ejecutivo nacional. Mediante un análisis de cómo dictaminan los diputados oficialistas argentinos en comisión, se encuentra que el apoyo a proyectos del ejecutivo es explicado por variables institucionales, como la pertenencia a un (inter)bloque o el calendario electoral, y por variables contextuales, como el apoyo que un presidente tiene en la opinión pública.
Estudios recientes han concluido que el calendario electoral y la nacionalización del sistema de partidos ejercen influencia causal sobre la congruencia de las estrategias de alianzas electorales. Sin embargo, existe una importante diferencia entre ocupar el oficialismo o estar del lado de la oposición. Que el oficialismo cuente con exposición ante el electorado de manera constante, recursos públicos, capacidad para disciplinar a los gobernadores y posibilidad de cartelizar el poder legislativo, entre otros, coloca al partido en una posición favorable para tener una estrategia aliancista congruente al encarar las elecciones. Por estos mismos motivos, pero en sentido contrario, la oposición tiende a fragmentarse y, por lo tanto, sus alianzas reflejan en mayor medida escenarios locales y diferenciados entre sí. Esta investigación encuentra que en Argentina entre 1983 y 2013, el calendario electoral y la nacionalización del sistema de partidos no alteran el nivel de congruencia de las estrategias de alianza del oficialismo. Solo generan un impacto causal sobre la oposición.
La integración entre diferentes niveles de las organizaciones partidarias tiene importantes consecuencias para el funcionamiento del sistema político multinivel. Las alianzas electorales es uno de los elementos en los cuales es posible evidenciar la integración de los partidos. Cuando el nivel local de las organizaciones cuenta con autonomía para armar sus propias alianzas electorales para cargos legislativos nacionales, los compañeros de dichas alianzas pueden diferir de aquellos con los que el partido nacional hace alianza para la competencia por la Presidencia. Este artículo encuentra evidencia acerca de que el grado de congruencia aliancista de los partidos argentinos ha ido bajando entre 1983 y 2013 en la competencia por las bancas de Diputados Nacionales. Aquí se plantea que cuando la elección de Presidente se realiza de manera concurrente con la de Diputados Nacionales, la congruencia aliancista de los partidos entre los distintos distritos, tiende a aumentar. Y lo mismo ocurre cuando el sistema de partidos se encuentra más nacionalizado.
Las alianzas electorales son parte protagónica del cambio experimentado por el sistema de par-tidos argentino en los últimos 30 años. Su importancia relativa fue visibilizándose conforme fue avanzan-do el proceso de territorialización en un entramado aliancista que tiene a la Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) y al Partido Justicialista (PJ) como pivotes fundamentales. El artículo analiza en forma descriptiva la con-gruencia de las estrategias de alianza de ambos partidos entre 1983 y 2013 destacando dos conclusiones. Primero, el grado de congruencia aliancista intra-provincial es mayor que al compararse la dinámica de los comicios ejecutivo-legislativo de un mismo nivel nacional. Segundo, la lógica nacional en el armado de las alianzas se erosiona cuando el partido atraviesa procesos de fragmentación interna.
La discusión en torno al efecto de las elecciones primarias sobre los partidos divide a la literatura entre los que sostienen que sin importar el resultado interno, los votos del candidato perdedor se trasladan masivamente a votar luego por el ganador de la contienda, y quienes destacan que si la disputa al interior del partido/coalición se traslada a una interna competitiva, el candidato que pierde no juega para su equipo con el consecuente impacto de que el partido encuentra disminuidas las chances de ganar la elección general. A través de un modelo estadístico, en este trabajo se muestra que primarias con mayor número de listas y con mayor competitividad entre facciones reducen el voto que una coalición obtiene en la elección general. El estudio analiza la política electoral de los municipios de la Provincia de Buenos Aires y destaca que las primarias no sólo tienen efectos en las decisiones internas de selección de candidatos de los partidos sino que, a su vez, afectan el rendimiento electoral de las coaliciones. Este resultado es particularmente importante para pensar en las estrategias electorales cuando el juego tiene más de un turno.
Las alianzas electorales son producto de cálculos estratégicos que los partidos realizan para enfrentar elecciones de cargos, y como tantas otras decisiones alrededor de las campañas y los comicios, las coaliciones electorales se enfocan en la consecución de maximizar votos, bancas, afiliados y/o financiamiento, y lograr la supervivencia política de las organizaciones. El presente estudio de carácter descriptivo realiza un aporte empírico concreto dimensionando la importancia cada vez mayor de las alianzas electorales en Argentina cubriendo el período de los 30 años de democracia desde la transición en 1983. El rol protagónico de las alianzas electorales tiene lugar en un sistema de partidos que viene mostrando claros signos de territorialización de la competencia partidaria,
El presente artículo ofrece un estudio sobre la congruencia de las alianzas electorales en Argentina entre 1983 y 2011. Lo anterior a partir de dos acciones: primero, ubicando empíricamente el fenómeno; segundo, conociendo el nivel de congruencia que los partidos han tenido en su política aliancista en los distintos procesos electorales que se presentaron durante el período considerado. La propuesta dedica un apartado especial al Partido Justicialista (pj) y a la Unión Cívica Radical (ucr), por su importancia sistémica.
Son numerosos los factores que inciden sobre el nivel de nacionalización de los partidos y de la integración en sentido vertical de las organizaciones partidarias. Entre ellos, poca atención se ha prestado hasta ahora al marco normativo que regula la conformación de las alianzas electorales. En este artículo se ofrece un análisis comparativo de los diferentes modos en los que los países latinoamericanos regulan la constitución de alianzas electorales, observando cómo los diferentes marcos normativos impactan sobre el balance de poder entre el nivel nacional y sub-nacional de los partidos, y por lo tanto en los niveles de nacionalización y de integración vertical. Para ello se desarrolla el concepto de congruencia de las alianzas, aspecto que se observa a partir de tres dimensiones. Ello permite clasificar a los países latinoamericanos en cuatro grupos principales, según su normativa sobre alianzas electorales incentive en mayor o menor medida la nacionalización e integración vertical de los partidos
El conflicto del presidente argentino Javier Milei con los gobernadores.
Sobre las elecciones presidenciales en Argentina.
El Gobierno quiere eliminar o modificar las primarias para 2019. Peña y Pérez cuestionaron su costo y utilidad. Sin embargo, distintos especialistas consultados por Página/12 destacaron que no hay suficientes experiencias como para sacar conclusiones y remarcaron otras funciones de la ley aprobada en 2009.
Los estudios sobre coaliciones en sistemas presidenciales crecieron de manera exponencial en los últimos años. Veinte Manzanas dialogó con Paula Clerici para entender qué es una coalición y cómo están funcionando a nivel regional.
Entrevista en medio Espacios Políticos
Co-authored with Facundo Cruz Las elecciones “pegadas”, a diferencia de las escalonadas, actúan como un incentivo hacia coaliciones con un mayor nivel de congruencia y más parecidas entre sí. ¿Por qué?
Entrevista a Facundo Cruz, Lara Goyburu y Paula Clerici, directores del grupo de investigación Coaliciones políticas en América Latina en perspectiva multinivel, en Ciencia Política (UBA). Por Facundo Matos Peychaux) El primer paso para que hubiera una coalición de gobierno (el reparto de cargos) se dio. ¿Qué más tiene que pasar para que haya una coalición de gobierno?
Los votantes no se sobresaltan frente a estrategias de alianza poco congruentes cuando los partidos que forman una alianza para la elección de un cargo son competidores para otro.
La importancia de la transparencia electoral en el marco de los Derechos Humanos.
La doctora Paula Clérici es investigadora sobre las campañas políticas y las plataformas electorales. En una nota exclusiva analiza la evolución de las plataformas según pasan los años.
¿Qué es y qué no es la ciencia política? La difusión de la ciencia política. Co-authored with Lara Goyburu and Facundo Cruz
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